The stability of ethnic group and religion in the Censuses of England and Wales 2001-2011
Simpson, L., Jivraj, S. & Warren, J. (2014) BSPS Annual Conference 2014, Univ of Winchester, 8 - 10 September 2014. [ONS LS]
When a change in a population is recorded, for example a decrease in long-term limiting illness of the Caribbean group, or an increase in the employment of Bangladeshi men, these comparisons are fair and accurate as descriptions of how the group is different at two points in time. This paper digs a little deeper and asks the extent to which such change can occur because an ethnic group or religious group is made up of different people, rather than the same people having changed their characteristics. This paper intends to answer the most urgent practical questions for analysts of ethnicity and of religion from the censuses. After a summary of findings and a recap of population change 1991-2001-2011, for each ethnic group and religion category this paper identifies for 2001-2011:
- How much population change between two censuses is due to people joining or leaving the population through being born, dying, moving into or out of England and Wales, or being not counted ?
- For those recorded at both 2001 and 2011 Censuses, the extent to which people did not change their ethnic group, and whether amalgamating ethnic groups increases the stability of responses.
- The comparisons between ethnic groups across 1991, 2001 and 2011 which are most valid because least subject to instability.
- The implications for analysts of ethnic group from census datasets .
- The extent to which people did and did not change their religion. The paper uses the ONS Longitudinal Study, containing individual records for about 1% of the population of England and Wales, linked across censuses since 1971.
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Output from project: 401002