Champion, T., Cooke, T., Lynch, K. & Shuttleworth, I. (2014) BSPS Annual Conference 2014, Univ of Winchester, 8 - 10 September 2014. [ONS LS]

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Abstract:

Studying how migration rates have altered over the longer term, and why, is pressing for policy reasons as well as for understanding social change. This paper uses the ONS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales to examine the propensity of people to change address between censuses and compares these 10-year address change rates across the four decades from 1971-1981 to 2001-2011. The descriptive results are presented both for the aggregate population and for a selection of population subgroups that can be identified on a consistent basis across the censuses involved. They are also broken down by the distance between start and end of decade addresses. The headline result is that the overall rate of 10-year address changing has dropped by almost one-fifth between the 1970s and the 2000s – from 55% to 45% of all the ‘decade survivors’. This decline in rate is almost entirely due to the reduced rate of moving 10km or less, whereas as indicated by the NHSCR-derived data the rates of longer-distance address changing have held up, unlike in the USA. Even so, this latter finding is significant because a rise in longer-distance migration might have been expected from the population shift into composition towards higher-skill (and traditionally more migratory) occupational groups. Almost all population groups have shared in the decline in rates, the main exceptions being those starting the decade as private renters and those living in communal establishments. Regression analysis and Oaxaca-Blinder modelling are then used to gauge the separate contribution of each personal attribute.

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Output from project: 04010063