Selective Religious Migration across the Life course: Evidence from Northern Ireland 1981-2011
Campbell, B., Shuttleworth, I. & McName, C. (2017) UK Administrative Data Research Network Annual Research Conference, Royal College of Surgeons, Edinburgh, UK, 1 - 2 June 2017 [NILS]
Since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, Northern Ireland has prospered from the economic dividend of peace and political stability. However, one important facet of Northern Ireland's divided past - inter communal residential segregation between Protestants and Catholics remains persistently high. Using the Age, Period and Cohort (APC) model as a methodological and theoretical framework this paper sets out to understand how the propensity to move a more or less religiously segregated area has changed between 1981 and 2011. This will be achieved by accessing linked census data from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) upon which negative binomial regression will be performed to disentangle age, period and cohort effects. The analysis will take place in three stages by firstly exploring how movements to more/less segregated areas vary as individual's age and progress through key life course phases. Secondly, assess whether Northern Ireland's two communities in the current era of peace and stability are continuing to grow apart at the same rate as in previous, more unstable years. Lastly, cohort analysis will be carried out to assess how one's birth cohort and relative experience of the violence has influenced their migratory behaviour, with comparisons made between pre and post 'troubles' cohorts.