Selective migration and neighbourhood change: an exploratory analysis of data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study
Bailey, N., Kearns, A. & Livingston, M. (2008) British Society for Population Studies Annual Conference, University of Manchester, UK, 10 - 12 September 2008 [SLS]
The paper examines the role of selective migration in driving neighbourhood change, focussing in particular on the extent to which migration acts to reinforce or deepen patterns of spatial segregation. This is an area of great policy relevance given concerns about the impacts that concentrations of deprivation have on individual welfare. Governments in the UK and elsewhere have long sought to intervene in deprived neighbourhoods to try to manage the consequences of segregation, yet there is a concern that these efforts may be undermined by selective migration ("those who get on, get out"). Recent analyses of 2001 Census migration data suggest these concerns may have been overstated (Bailey and Livingston, 2008). This paper extends that work in a number of ways: by exploring migration and neighbourhood change on a wider range of dimensions related to socio-economic status; by taking a longer-term perspective; and by examining in situ change (change for non-migrants) alongside selective migration. The paper takes advantage of the new data available through the Scottish Longitudinal Study. Analyses are carried out at the level of the CATTs (Continuous Areas Through Time). Hypotheses include the following: that spatial segregation rises over the period 1991-2001 on each of dimensions examined; that selective migration acts to reinforce segregation on each of the dimensions; and that selective migration is the dominant process driving area change (i.e. that any improvements that deprived areas see through in situ change are more than offset by net migration effects on average).