Shuttleworth, I., Gould, M. & Barr, P. (2012) BSPS Annual Conference 2012, University of Nottingham, UK, 10 - 12 September 2012 [NILS]
Other information: Abstract:
Residential segregation appears to have remained constant in Northern Ireland (NI) since 1991 despite community differentials in migration propensities and destinations that might have been expected to have led to greater segregation (Shuttleworth et al 2012). Part of the explanation for this lies in the nature of residential moves. Typically, most are short distance and they occur in a particular spatial context where there are relatively large geographical blocks of population. Everything else being equal, this means that many moves start and end in the same type of place. This presentation therefore explores how current geographical population structures limit the possibilities for radical changes in segregation levels. It does this by: (a) modelling how local population structures shape individual probabilities of moving to and from "Catholic" areas; and (b) describing the types of people who move far enough to remix the NI population. The analysis is set in a wider historical context to consider how population processes can sometimes rapidly "ratchet drive" segregation levels upwards; whilst there are other periods where migration has only a minor effect.